arborist/bench/results
russell@unturf.com 4352b84508
#000049 §7 #27: recall-side realism check — synthetic 28/28 was a 4x over-estimate; bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999 is the new fp=0 leader on real haystacks at 0.48 recall (vs §7 #26's claimed 28/28 → 0.24 on real)
Built bench/fixtures/5f/recombination-realcontext-v1.jsonl: 25 hand-built
recombination claims (deliberate re-attributions within real bench-qa
30 KB Wikipedia haystacks the pipeline produced — Mount Kenya into a
Kilimanjaro answer, Galileo onto all 63 Jupiter moons, Joshua Reynolds
onto the Mona Lisa, etc.). Ran the full 7-model × full-grid sweep vs
the 808 pooled STRICT. Result:

- bart-large-mnli / k=12 / max / θc=0.999 → 12/25 = 0.48 catch · 0/808 FP
  (the real-haystack fp=0 leader)
- deberta-large-mnli / k=3 / margin / θc=0.995 → 6/25 = 0.24 (§7 #26's
  'settled' config — 28/28 synthetic, 0.24 real-haystack: 4× over-estimate)
- roberta-large 0.12, MiniLM 0.08, deberta-base 0.04

So §7 #26's 'boundary closed' walks back to 'boundary PARTIALLY closed'
on real haystacks. The bottleneck is architectural: top-k by token
overlap misses the contradicting clause when it shares few subject-area
tokens with the answer (e.g. the Mount Kenya clause only shares 'Kenya'
with a Kilimanjaro claim — ranked low, NLI never sees it). Threshold
tuning doesn't lift the ceiling; a SEMANTIC candidate selector
(vec-driven, sibling of #000050/#000051's hybrid retrieval) does.

bart's pareto above fp=0: fp=0.011 catch=0.52, fp=0.057 catch=0.84,
fp=0.068 catch=0.92 — permissive operating points are on the menu if
fox+dav1d sign off. recommended_operating_point updated to
bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999; deberta-large/margin kept as the
synthetic-eval reference. Sixth meta-lesson instance: clean synthetic
eval doesn't predict bench-qa precision OR recall — neither contrived
dataset axis is load-bearing, only the real pipeline shape is.

Production verifier unchanged; falsification-hard stays 10/12. Still
SHADOW; runtime promotion fox+dav1d-decides.
2026-05-13 06:35:36 -04:00
..
5f-threshold-calibration-2026-05-11.md #000047 — close: delta_aggregator knob on ForkScore (Option D) 2026-05-11 08:27:38 -04:00
baseline-falsification-hard.json #000048 step 2.1 — verify_quotes entity salient-token-disagreement gate 2026-05-11 13:57:45 -04:00
citation-aliases-batch-2026-05-10.md citation-aliases batch: 18 -> 35 / 92 records resolve (38%) 2026-05-10 06:58:27 -04:00
claim-pack-retrieval-lift-2026-05-09.md bench/results: claim-pack retrieval lift measurement (2026-05-09) 2026-05-09 13:38:04 -04:00
full-bench-qa-2026-05-10.md bench/full-bench-qa: no regression after substrate+Phase 3 sprint (675 cells) 2026-05-10 13:42:12 -04:00
full-warrant-resolution-2026-05-10.md docs: refresh stale alias counts (residual 40/54 → 74) 2026-05-10 12:27:23 -04:00
grinstead-snell-and-cascade-tuning-2026-05-10.md Grinstead-Snell ingest + cascade tuning batch: 68 -> 77/92 (84%) 2026-05-10 08:03:11 -04:00
hilbert-pillar-iv-fully-resolved-2026-05-09.md ticket #000042: 4 geometry aliases resolve all 18 Hilbert pillar IV records 2026-05-09 20:18:58 -04:00
lambda-and-pm-additions-2026-05-10.md PLFA + SF-LF + PM Vol 1 ingest: 62 -> 68/92 (74%) — pillar IX nearly closed 2026-05-10 07:45:40 -04:00
medium-confidence-aliases-and-peano-2026-05-10.md medium-conf aliases + Peano ingest + title backfill: 35 -> 54/92 (59%) 2026-05-10 07:14:44 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n1-fixtures-vs-realstrict.json #000049 §7 #23: grid sweep flips the verdict — the lexical-candidate NLI veto PASSES the gate 2026-05-12 18:12:36 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n1-minilm.json #000049 §7 #23 (wip): nli_shadow_grid.py — sweep {model × candidate-cap k × aggregation × θc × θe} over a should-demote vs should-not-demote pair; manifest gains 2 more alternates (minilm-explicit, deberta-v3-large) for the model science 2026-05-12 18:05:30 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n1-synth-vs-realstrict.json #000049 §7 #23: grid sweep flips the verdict — the lexical-candidate NLI veto PASSES the gate 2026-05-12 18:12:36 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n1-synth-vs-synth.json #000049 §7 #23: grid sweep flips the verdict — the lexical-candidate NLI veto PASSES the gate 2026-05-12 18:12:36 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n3-synth-vs-realstrict.json #000049 §7 #24: n=3 confirmation — §7 #23 was a small-FP-sample artifact; the no-stone-unturned mega-grid found the config that survives 2026-05-12 18:38:43 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-n5-synth-vs-realstrict.json #000049 §7 #25: n=5 confirmation (444 STRICT cells) — verdict settles; the large models are the robust ones, MiniLM-cost-pick overturned 2026-05-12 19:42:55 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-pooled808-synth-vs-realstrict.json #000049 §7 #26: mining for real recombinations + the pooled-808-STRICT check — verdict settles on margin@0.995 2026-05-12 21:11:35 -04:00
nli-shadow-grid-realctx25-vs-pooled808.json #000049 §7 #27: recall-side realism check — synthetic 28/28 was a 4x over-estimate; bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999 is the new fp=0 leader on real haystacks at 0.48 recall (vs §7 #26's claimed 28/28 → 0.24 on real) 2026-05-13 06:35:36 -04:00
nli-shadow-sweep-benchqa-n1.json #000049 §7 #22: speedup (batch + cuda auto-detect + ONNX-int8 export) + the gate-item-4 verdict at proper n 2026-05-12 17:21:32 -04:00
nli-shadow-sweep-smoke-live.json #000049 §7 #21: candidate-clause restriction in ShadowNLI.check — helps, doesn't close it 2026-05-12 14:34:44 -04:00
nli-shadow-sweep.json #000049 §7 #21: candidate-clause restriction in ShadowNLI.check — helps, doesn't close it 2026-05-12 14:34:44 -04:00
nli-strict-fires-mining-pooled.jsonl #000049 §7 #26: mining for real recombinations + the pooled-808-STRICT check — verdict settles on margin@0.995 2026-05-12 21:11:35 -04:00
phase3-live-validation-2026-05-10.md Phase 3 live validation: 6/7 probes reach EVIDENCE-WARRANTED 2026-05-10 09:46:10 -04:00
phase3-warrant-chain-A-B-2026-05-10.md bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism dormant on warrant-targeted fixture 2026-05-10 09:37:27 -04:00
phase3-warrant-chain-A-B-aggressive-2026-05-10.md bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path 2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
phase3-warrant-chain-paraphrase-investigation-2026-05-10.md bench: Phase 3 paraphrase fixture investigation — empirically dormant on current corpus 2026-05-10 10:06:23 -04:00
progressive-and-2026-05-09.md bench: progressive-AND fixture + 2026-05-09 A/B baseline report 2026-05-10 06:35:18 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-sweep-dryrun-2026-05-10.md #000037 §22: dry-run swap to sweep_weights() + §15.4 added 2026-05-10 19:22:03 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10-npower.md three-thread session output: stale TODOs, N-power probe, ForkScore Phase 1c 2026-05-10 07:46:35 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10.md #000037 §12 Trigger 2 fires empirically — Phase 1 gate satisfied 2026-05-10 17:55:19 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-11.md #000012 Phase 1c follow-through: wire #000037 §12 Trigger 1 probe to fork_score_branches 2026-05-11 06:56:09 -04:00
real-shard-baseline.json modified: .gitignore 2026-05-08 16:38:09 -04:00
real-shard-baseline.md modified: .gitignore 2026-05-08 16:38:09 -04:00
textbook-base-knowledge-upgrade-2026-05-09.md textbook ingest: 4 base-knowledge additions for pillars I/II/III/IX 2026-05-09 20:38:32 -04:00
three-more-textbooks-2026-05-10.md 3 more textbooks (Russell PoM + Laplace + Dedekind): 54 -> 62/92 (67%) 2026-05-10 07:31:40 -04:00
warrant-chain-render-2026-05-09.md bench/results: warrant-chain render tail measurement (2026-05-09) 2026-05-09 18:00:36 -04:00
witness-sweep.json fan-out: witness automation · #000018 analysis · #000033 pillar VII (Claude) 2026-05-09 14:36:39 -04:00