arborist/bench
russell@unturf.com 4352b84508
#000049 §7 #27: recall-side realism check — synthetic 28/28 was a 4x over-estimate; bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999 is the new fp=0 leader on real haystacks at 0.48 recall (vs §7 #26's claimed 28/28 → 0.24 on real)
Built bench/fixtures/5f/recombination-realcontext-v1.jsonl: 25 hand-built
recombination claims (deliberate re-attributions within real bench-qa
30 KB Wikipedia haystacks the pipeline produced — Mount Kenya into a
Kilimanjaro answer, Galileo onto all 63 Jupiter moons, Joshua Reynolds
onto the Mona Lisa, etc.). Ran the full 7-model × full-grid sweep vs
the 808 pooled STRICT. Result:

- bart-large-mnli / k=12 / max / θc=0.999 → 12/25 = 0.48 catch · 0/808 FP
  (the real-haystack fp=0 leader)
- deberta-large-mnli / k=3 / margin / θc=0.995 → 6/25 = 0.24 (§7 #26's
  'settled' config — 28/28 synthetic, 0.24 real-haystack: 4× over-estimate)
- roberta-large 0.12, MiniLM 0.08, deberta-base 0.04

So §7 #26's 'boundary closed' walks back to 'boundary PARTIALLY closed'
on real haystacks. The bottleneck is architectural: top-k by token
overlap misses the contradicting clause when it shares few subject-area
tokens with the answer (e.g. the Mount Kenya clause only shares 'Kenya'
with a Kilimanjaro claim — ranked low, NLI never sees it). Threshold
tuning doesn't lift the ceiling; a SEMANTIC candidate selector
(vec-driven, sibling of #000050/#000051's hybrid retrieval) does.

bart's pareto above fp=0: fp=0.011 catch=0.52, fp=0.057 catch=0.84,
fp=0.068 catch=0.92 — permissive operating points are on the menu if
fox+dav1d sign off. recommended_operating_point updated to
bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999; deberta-large/margin kept as the
synthetic-eval reference. Sixth meta-lesson instance: clean synthetic
eval doesn't predict bench-qa precision OR recall — neither contrived
dataset axis is load-bearing, only the real pipeline shape is.

Production verifier unchanged; falsification-hard stays 10/12. Still
SHADOW; runtime promotion fox+dav1d-decides.
2026-05-13 06:35:36 -04:00
..
batteries #000025 §10.11 + §10.13 + §10.14 — close the 5F battery 2026-05-11 07:41:37 -04:00
fixtures #000049 §7 #27: recall-side realism check — synthetic 28/28 was a 4x over-estimate; bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999 is the new fp=0 leader on real haystacks at 0.48 recall (vs §7 #26's claimed 28/28 → 0.24 on real) 2026-05-13 06:35:36 -04:00
results #000049 §7 #27: recall-side realism check — synthetic 28/28 was a 4x over-estimate; bart-large-mnli/k=12/max/θc=0.999 is the new fp=0 leader on real haystacks at 0.48 recall (vs §7 #26's claimed 28/28 → 0.24 on real) 2026-05-13 06:35:36 -04:00
scripts nli_shadow_grid: expand to no-stone-unturned sweep — 7 aggregations (incl. margin + paired-entail guard), finer θc grid (20 pts up to 0.999), --extra-models flag, global-best-fp=0 + Pareto-frontier output per model 2026-05-12 18:30:40 -04:00
emergent_log.jsonl #000006 — +30 emergent cycles (2026-05-12); verifier-ladder health re-confirmed 2026-05-12 11:28:57 -04:00
prometheus_sigma_trigger_probe.py #000012 Phase 1c follow-through: wire #000037 §12 Trigger 1 probe to fork_score_branches 2026-05-11 06:56:09 -04:00
qa_questions.txt aborist/arborist 2026-05-07 09:31:49 -04:00
qa_questions_canonical_witness_npower.txt three-thread session output: stale TODOs, N-power probe, ForkScore Phase 1c 2026-05-10 07:46:35 -04:00
qa_questions_metacog_subset.txt qa(#000011 + 4 more): SOFT_PREFLIGHT_HINT impl + 5-task fan-out 2026-05-03 23:00:56 -04:00
qa_questions_progressive_and.txt bench: progressive-AND fixture + 2026-05-09 A/B baseline report 2026-05-10 06:35:18 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_baseline.txt bench(#000008): harness extension — FC rate, violation kinds, raw brackets 2026-05-02 18:35:08 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_subset.txt ticket(#000008): §12 dry-run bench findings + --policy harness flag 2026-05-03 08:39:20 -04:00
qa_questions_smoke.txt speed: pytest-xdist, bench smoke, concurrency default; UTF surrogate fix 2026-05-02 09:29:40 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_aggressive.txt bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path 2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_paraphrase.txt bench: Phase 3 paraphrase fixture investigation — empirically dormant on current corpus 2026-05-10 10:06:23 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_probe.txt bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism dormant on warrant-targeted fixture 2026-05-10 09:37:27 -04:00
qa_sweep.py bench/qa_sweep: scrub lone surrogates from the NLI-shadow answer_text/context fields before json.dumps 2026-05-12 17:04:33 -04:00
run.sh aborist/arborist 2026-05-07 09:31:49 -04:00