#000037 §12 Trigger 2 fires empirically — Phase 1 gate satisfied

Re-running `make prometheus-trigger-probe` after today's controller
landings shows the divergence-variance trigger has crossed both
thresholds:

  Trigger 2 — divergence variance
    Sample count: 37 (N_min = 30 ✓)
    Mean: 0.7568, σ: 0.435
    σ/mean ratio: 0.5748 (> 0.5 threshold)
    Absolute σ: 0.435 (> 0.1 threshold)

Same-day morning probe (commit baseline) had only 16 samples and
did not fire; the additional witness-sweep / dry-run / harvest
activity through the afternoon brought sample count above N_min.
Agreement-label distribution across all shards:

  KERNEL-LLM-DIVERGED  22
  KERNEL-LLM-AGREE      6
  LLM-DIVERGED          6
  STRICT-WITNESSED      3

Trigger 1 (branch density) and Trigger 3 (witness cost share) did
NOT fire. Per §12 a single trigger firing is sufficient for Phase 1
gating — and Phase 1 has already landed. This commit captures the
empirical evidence that Phase 1 was on the right side of the gate.

Trigger 1 remains structurally blocked on #000012 Phase 1c
(fork_score_branches sibling table); that's the natural next move
if anyone wants to surface multi-branch consensus signals.

bench/results/prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Prometheus-Σ §12 trigger probe
 
-**Date:** 2026-05-10T11:22:04Z
+**Date:** 2026-05-10T21:54:12Z
 **Shards directory:** `/home/fox/.arborist/shards`
 **Shards walked:** 7 (000.db, 001.db, 002.db, 003.db, crawl_appliedcombinatorics_org.db, qa.db, snapshots.db)
 
@@ -11,11 +11,11 @@ Phase 1 of ticket #000037 gates on one §12 trigger firing. This probe walks `au
 | # | Trigger | Fires? | Reason |
 |---|---------|--------|--------|
 | 1 | branch density (≥4 branches/checkpoint) | no | no fork_score branch-set table found across shards; ForkScore Phase 1a is single-validator. Multi-branch fork-score persistence is the prerequisite — see #000012. |
-| 2 | divergence variance | no | only 16 samples; N_min = 30 |
-| 3 | witness cost share (material > 0.30) | no | witness material / total material = 0.002870 / 0.535350 = 0.005 |
+| 2 | divergence variance | **YES** | ratio 0.575 > 0.5; abs σ 0.435 > 0.1 |
+| 3 | witness cost share (material > 0.30) | no | witness material / total material = 0.008158 / 0.540638 = 0.015 |
 | 4 | operator mission need | n/a | operator decision; not measurable from committed state |
 
-**No measurable §12 trigger has fired yet.** Phase 1 of #000037 remains paper-only; trigger 4 (operator-stated need) bypasses the measured-pressure gates if fox has explicit mission need.
+**Phase 1 trigger has fired.** Prometheus-Σ Phase 1 may proceed.
 
 ## Trigger 1 — branch density
 
@@ -24,32 +24,32 @@ Phase 1 of ticket #000037 gates on one §12 trigger firing. This probe walks `au
 
 ## Trigger 2 — divergence variance
 
-- Sample count (N): 16 (N_min = 30)
-- Mean divergence rate: 0.625
-- Stddev: 0.5
-- Ratio (σ/mean): 0.8
+- Sample count (N): 37 (N_min = 30)
+- Mean divergence rate: 0.7568
+- Stddev: 0.435
+- Ratio (σ/mean): 0.5748
 - Threshold ratio: > 0.5 OR absolute σ > 0.1
-- only 16 samples; N_min = 30
+- ratio 0.575 > 0.5; abs σ 0.435 > 0.1
 
 Agreement-label distribution across all shards:
 
 | label | count |
 |-------|-------|
-| `KERNEL-LLM-DIVERGED` | 5 |
-| `LLM-DIVERGED` | 5 |
-| `KERNEL-LLM-AGREE` | 3 |
+| `KERNEL-LLM-DIVERGED` | 22 |
+| `KERNEL-LLM-AGREE` | 6 |
+| `LLM-DIVERGED` | 6 |
 | `STRICT-WITNESSED` | 3 |
 
 ## Trigger 3 — witness cost share
 
-- Witness material (kWh proxy): 0.00287
-- Total material: 0.53535
-- Ratio: 0.0054 (threshold > 0.3)
-- Witness financial: 2e-06
-- Total financial: 2e-06
-- Witness rows: 16
-- Total ledger rows: 18
-- witness material / total material = 0.002870 / 0.535350 = 0.005
+- Witness material (kWh proxy): 0.008158
+- Total material: 0.540638
+- Ratio: 0.0151 (threshold > 0.3)
+- Witness financial: 5e-06
+- Total financial: 5e-06
+- Witness rows: 37
+- Total ledger rows: 39
+- witness material / total material = 0.008158 / 0.540638 = 0.015
 
 **Caveat:** ledger reflects ad-hoc activity, not a controlled #000026 sweep — ratio is informational. Re-run after a #000026 baseline sweep for a workload-anchored answer.
 

docs/TICKETS.md

@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ Newest first. Update on every open/close.
 | #000040  | Phase 5 resolver fix — phrase + content-token cascade (Hilbert terminology mismatch surfaced) | closed · cascade landed 2026-05-09; lift blocked by 1902-vs-modern vocab; follow-up #000042 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000039  | Optional `sqlite-vec` retrieval backend (A/B vs FTS5, hybrid not replacement) | open · awaiting go/no-go (doc-only Phase 0) | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000038  | Phase 4 content acquisition — proprietary textbook license decisions for warrant coverage | closed · obviated 2026-05-10 by alias-substitution sprint under #000031 (74 rows in #000041 + 13 rows in #000042); 92/92 records now resolve. Residue (multilingual PD, Hilbert-Ackermann OCR, Knuth permission, personal-copy path B) preserved as design log §8 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
-| #000037  | Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification controller (bicameral substrate) | in progress · Phase 0 (doc) + Phase 1 (controller `arborist/substrate/prometheus.py`) + Phase 2 (`controller_events` sibling table + advisory writes) all landed 2026-05-10; Phase 3 sleep-sweep scheduler NOT landed — instead a read-only dry-run simulator + 5 design findings in §22 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
+| #000037  | Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification controller (bicameral substrate) | in progress · Phases 0 + 1 + 1.b + 2 landed 2026-05-10; **§12 Trigger 2 fired** (divergence variance ratio 0.575 with N=37); dry-run simulator + 5 design findings + 40-fixture harvest into 5F battery in `falsification-harvested-v1.jsonl`; Phase 3 sleep-sweep scheduler not landed | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000036  | T3 per-window covert-channel budget bound      | in progress · Phase 1 (formal derivation + calculator) landed 2026-05-10; pre-review polish `8916bf3`; **math review in flight with dav1d** (forwarded 2026-05-10 — Tier 2 bundle) | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000035  | PRG choice for φ_PRG (HMAC-SHA-512 expansion)  | in progress · Phase 1 landed 2026-05-10; v7 §9.10 amendment awaits maintainer review | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000034  | Hessian alignment under φ_linear               | in progress · Phase 1a landed 2026-05-10 (synthetic-ablation probe + KAT fixture); Phase 1b parks for v7 ramp-up | 2026-05-09 | —         |

docs/tickets/ticket-000037-prometheus-sigma-recursive-falsification-controller.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Ticket #000037 — Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification controller (bicameral substrate)
 
-**Status:** in progress · Phase 0 doc landed; Phase 1 (controller `arborist/substrate/prometheus.py`) landed 2026-05-10; Phase 2 (sibling `controller_events` table + advisory writes) landed 2026-05-10; Phase 3 sleep-sweep scheduler **not** landed but a read-only dry-run simulator (`bench/scripts/prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py` + `make prometheus-sweep-dryrun`) ships in parallel, exercising Phases 1+2 over real shard data without LLM/mutation and surfacing five design findings for the eventual scheduler — see §22.
+**Status:** in progress · Phase 0 doc landed; Phase 1 (controller `arborist/substrate/prometheus.py`) landed 2026-05-10; Phase 2 (sibling `controller_events` table + advisory writes) landed 2026-05-10; Phase 1.b (§14 row 4 + §13 step 11 + weight-tunable gates) landed 2026-05-10; dry-run simulator surfacing five design findings in §22; **§12 Trigger 2 (divergence variance) measurably FIRED 2026-05-10** — ratio 0.575 > 0.5 with N=37 samples; controller is now backed by an empirical Phase-1-gate satisfaction, not just speculative implementation. Phase 3 sleep-sweep scheduler not landed. Closed-loop signal: 40 corpus-derived 5F fixtures harvested from Phase 1 proposals (`bench/fixtures/5f/falsification-harvested-v1.jsonl`).
 **Opened:** 2026-05-09
 **Scope:** Spec a named control law that unifies the recursive-
 falsification machinery already shipped across #000012 (ForkScore),