russell@unturf.com
8999b55c78
Re-running `make prometheus-trigger-probe` after today's controller
landings shows the divergence-variance trigger has crossed both
thresholds:
Trigger 2 — divergence variance
Sample count: 37 (N_min = 30 ✓)
Mean: 0.7568, σ: 0.435
σ/mean ratio: 0.5748 (> 0.5 threshold)
Absolute σ: 0.435 (> 0.1 threshold)
Same-day morning probe (commit baseline) had only 16 samples and
did not fire; the additional witness-sweep / dry-run / harvest
activity through the afternoon brought sample count above N_min.
Agreement-label distribution across all shards:
KERNEL-LLM-DIVERGED 22
KERNEL-LLM-AGREE 6
LLM-DIVERGED 6
STRICT-WITNESSED 3
Trigger 1 (branch density) and Trigger 3 (witness cost share) did
NOT fire. Per §12 a single trigger firing is sufficient for Phase 1
gating — and Phase 1 has already landed. This commit captures the
empirical evidence that Phase 1 was on the right side of the gate.
Trigger 1 remains structurally blocked on #000012 Phase 1c
(fork_score_branches sibling table); that's the natural next move
if anyone wants to surface multi-branch consensus signals.
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| .. | ||
| batteries | ||
| fixtures | ||
| results | ||
| scripts | ||
| emergent_log.jsonl | ||
| prometheus_sigma_trigger_probe.py | ||
| qa_questions.txt | ||
| qa_questions_canonical_witness_npower.txt | ||
| qa_questions_metacog_subset.txt | ||
| qa_questions_progressive_and.txt | ||
| qa_questions_quantifier_baseline.txt | ||
| qa_questions_quantifier_subset.txt | ||
| qa_questions_smoke.txt | ||
| qa_questions_warrant_chain_aggressive.txt | ||
| qa_questions_warrant_chain_paraphrase.txt | ||
| qa_questions_warrant_chain_probe.txt | ||
| qa_sweep.py | ||
| run.sh | ||