arborist/bench
russell@unturf.com ec55db513c
#000068 Phase 2+3: bench + opt-in demote flag for missed-answer guard
Phase 2 — bench instrumentation + measurement run

bench/qa_sweep.py picks up the answerability sidecar projection per row
(answerability_fired, answerability_confidence, answerability_denial_
pattern, answerability_answer_type, answerability_candidate_count) and
aggregates per-mode (answerability_fires + S/M/W confidence breakdown)
into a new column in the markdown summary table.

Measurement run on bench/qa_results/phase2-sidecar-on/2026-05-27T14-
16-22Z (76 questions × n=3 × claim_lattice × Hermes-3-8B × tail layout,
228 runs). Headline:

  sidecar fires        2/228 (0.88%)
  confidence dist      2 strong / 0 medium / 0 weak
  precision            100% (2/2 fires were the Ballestrini fixture)
  recall on Ballestrini 2/3 across n=3 (third run model extracted
                                       correctly -> sidecar silent,
                                       correct behavior)
  false positives      0/226 non-Ballestrini runs
  verifier verdict     both fires labeled STRICT by the binary
                       verifier (the verifier-blind class, exactly
                       as predicted)

Detection rule's three-clause conjunction (denial + extraction-shape +
candidate proximity near cleaned subject tokens) is operating at the
precision floor. The strong-confidence-only firing pattern is what
calibrates Phase 3's demote threshold.

Phase 3 — opt-in demote flag (default OFF per Dav1d Phase 4 NO-GO)

arborist/qa/keys.py: answerability_demote_enabled added to
_VERIFIER_POLICY_FIELDS so flipping the flag partitions cache via
verifier_policy_hash. Justification: when on, the rendered audit_mode
changes (EVIDENCE-WARRANTED -> EVIDENCE-MISSED-PARTIAL), which IS a
verifier-output property; verifier hash must move accordingly. The
other answerability_* fields stay governance-only (sidecar
diagnostic, no audit_mode mutation).

arborist/cli.py:_render_audit_label extended with answerability +
demote_enabled kwargs. Logic:

  demote_triggers = (
      demote_enabled
      and answerability["answerability_warning"] is True
      and answerability["confidence_class"] in ("strong", "medium")
  )

  lattice modes:
    EVIDENCE-WARRANTED -> EVIDENCE-MISSED-PARTIAL    (rung transition)
    POINTER-LINKED / ANCHOR-WARRANTED -> "rung · missed-answer"
                                          (tail tag; rung itself already
                                          signals degradation)

  non-lattice modes (quote/span/entity/paraphrase):
    audit_mode token unchanged + "· missed-answer" tail tag

  weak confidence: NEVER demotes (Phase 2 saw zero weak fires on real
  failures; reserved for future expanded detection ladder)

CLI flag --demote-on-missed-answer on both `arborist query` and
`arborist ask`, default OFF. Flows into call_policy[
"answerability_demote_enabled"] and through to result[
"answerability_demote_enabled"] so the renderer reads it without
needing the policy dict.

End-to-end verified live: 4 fresh Hermes-3-8B runs with --demote-on-
missed-answer on `songs by veronica ballestrini`, all 4 rendered
EVIDENCE-MISSED-PARTIAL · via claim_lattice (Hermes hit the failure
mode in all 4, sidecar fired strong, demote logic transformed the
label).

Phase 4 (default flip to demote-on) — NO-GO per Dav1d 2026-05-27 §3.4:
"a false sidecar warning is tolerable; a false audit-label demotion
can damage trust in correct abstentions." Phase 2 precision is 100%
but n=2 fires is too few samples to claim precision floor empirically.
Default flip blocks on wider bench + human spot-check of the warnings.

Tests: 47 total (36 Phase 1 + 11 new Phase 3 covering hash partitioning
discipline + render-label projection across all four rung/confidence
matrices). Full suite 2794 passed (delta +22 from prior 2772).

Bench output (bench/qa_results/phase2-sidecar-on/) intentionally not
committed — bench/qa_results/ is gitignored per existing convention;
the ticket carries the headline numbers + path for re-inspection.
2026-05-27 10:40:35 -04:00
..
batteries #000025 §10.11 + §10.13 + §10.14 — close the 5F battery 2026-05-11 07:41:37 -04:00
fixtures #000052 §3.2.2 step 3 part B: real-context MIS-CITE fixtures (n=20) — bge-large catches 100% of mis-cite at strictly 0% real-STRICT FP (the Zionist failure mode is fully covered with margin) 2026-05-13 15:27:58 -04:00
results #000067 phase 2: 3rd "fts" pack kind for skip-rebuild hydrate 2026-05-26 19:13:01 -04:00
scripts feat(#000049 §7 #28): tinygrad NLI backend + deterministic engine-agreement A/B; ONNX-immunity rationale 2026-05-19 12:34:04 -04:00
analyze_judge_disagreement.py feat(#000057): reconcile code judge against Opus — 4 calibrated rules 2026-05-19 18:14:38 -04:00
cold_pack_roundtrip.py bench: cold-pack producer/consumer roundtrip recorder (#000061 + #46) 2026-05-26 16:19:54 -04:00
control_ab.py fix(#000057): control_ab header prints actual model/answer_mode/judge 2026-05-21 12:37:24 -04:00
control_sweep.py feat: STOCK V.1 two-mode config family + wire treatment arms to the pin 2026-05-21 10:15:26 -04:00
emergent_log.jsonl #000006 — +30 emergent cycles (2026-05-12); verifier-ladder health re-confirmed 2026-05-12 11:28:57 -04:00
es_delta.py feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
es_join_patterns.py feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
es_roundtrip_analysis.py feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
extract_audit_events.py #000065 step 1: routing helper + meta field + pre-migration snapshot 2026-05-26 13:13:44 -04:00
jaggedness.py feat(#000060): bench/jaggedness.py — deterministic retrieval jaggedness instrument 2026-05-21 08:38:07 -04:00
judge.py feat(#000057): fail-closed Opus judge gate — ARBORIST_JUDGE_ENABLE=1 to run 2026-05-19 17:26:06 -04:00
judge_code.py docs+code: ground §12 judge pipeline in the actual judge_code.py 2026-05-22 19:17:28 -04:00
load_monitor.py feat: bench/load_monitor.py — stdlib request-load monitor for single-slot endpoints 2026-05-21 09:20:53 -04:00
make_es_questions.py feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
make_lang_questions.py feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
mine_questions.py fix(#000057): solo arm never ran — chat_completion(model=) was omitted 2026-05-19 11:49:30 -04:00
pre_migration_snapshot.py #000065 step 1: routing helper + meta field + pre-migration snapshot 2026-05-26 13:13:44 -04:00
prometheus_sigma_trigger_probe.py #000012 Phase 1c follow-through: wire #000037 §12 Trigger 1 probe to fork_score_branches 2026-05-11 06:56:09 -04:00
qa_questions.txt user_payload_layout: opt-in policy knob for question placement 2026-05-27 10:13:59 -04:00
qa_questions_accent.txt feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_accent_map.json feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_amp.txt feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_amp_map.json feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_brit.txt feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_brit_map.json feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_canonical_witness_npower.txt three-thread session output: stale TODOs, N-power probe, ForkScore Phase 1c 2026-05-10 07:46:35 -04:00
qa_questions_es.txt feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
qa_questions_es_map.json feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
qa_questions_fr.txt feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
qa_questions_fr_map.json feat: cross-language Q&A (Operation Sandwich) + Windows quickstart — all default-OFF 2026-05-18 12:12:23 -04:00
qa_questions_honorific.txt feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_honorific_map.json feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_hyphen.txt feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_hyphen_map.json feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
qa_questions_metacog_subset.txt qa(#000011 + 4 more): SOFT_PREFLIGHT_HINT impl + 5-task fan-out 2026-05-03 23:00:56 -04:00
qa_questions_numeral.txt fix(#000057): restore numeral fixture clobbered by b573c59 (40 entries, not 5) 2026-05-19 11:12:12 -04:00
qa_questions_numeral_map.json fix(#000057): restore numeral fixture clobbered by b573c59 (40 entries, not 5) 2026-05-19 11:12:12 -04:00
qa_questions_progressive_and.txt bench: progressive-AND fixture + 2026-05-09 A/B baseline report 2026-05-10 06:35:18 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_baseline.txt bench(#000008): harness extension — FC rate, violation kinds, raw brackets 2026-05-02 18:35:08 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_subset.txt ticket(#000008): §12 dry-run bench findings + --policy harness flag 2026-05-03 08:39:20 -04:00
qa_questions_smoke.txt speed: pytest-xdist, bench smoke, concurrency default; UTF surrogate fix 2026-05-02 09:29:40 -04:00
qa_questions_stale.txt feat(#000057): parallel + incremental + huge-N control sweep 2026-05-19 13:00:45 -04:00
qa_questions_stale_map.json feat(#000057): parallel + incremental + huge-N control sweep 2026-05-19 13:00:45 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_aggressive.txt bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path 2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_paraphrase.txt bench: Phase 3 paraphrase fixture investigation — empirically dormant on current corpus 2026-05-10 10:06:23 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_probe.txt bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism dormant on warrant-targeted fixture 2026-05-10 09:37:27 -04:00
qa_sweep.py #000068 Phase 2+3: bench + opt-in demote flag for missed-answer guard 2026-05-27 10:40:35 -04:00
recall_at_k.py feat(retrieval): accent-fold (+30pp recall@1) + fold-search factory hardening 2026-05-18 19:23:22 -04:00
run.sh aborist/arborist 2026-05-07 09:31:49 -04:00
score_with_code_judge.py feat(#000057): bench/score_with_code_judge.py — code-judge rescore tool 2026-05-19 17:46:52 -04:00
shard_count_sweep.py #000065: pin M=4 + bench script + SQLite-alternative decision tree 2026-05-26 12:40:48 -04:00
stock_v1.py feat: STOCK V.1 two-mode config family + wire treatment arms to the pin 2026-05-21 10:15:26 -04:00
watt_bench.py fix(#000057): real token usage + cost per input/output separately 2026-05-21 11:41:01 -04:00
watt_calibrate.py feat(#000057): bench/watt_calibrate.py — separate prefill vs decode energy 2026-05-21 11:48:36 -04:00
watt_probe.py fix(#000057): measure power STATES, not a duty-cycle blend; guarantee cache miss 2026-05-21 10:58:56 -04:00