arborist/docs/posts/cogs-tweet.md
russell@unturf.com 211bbb1daf
docs: draft COGS tweet — cost of a grounded answer (Hermes ~9c, Qwen ~16c per 1k)
Main tweet + follow-up (Merkle cache hit skips GPU, doesn't increment the
per-1k). Numbers are the measured claim_lattice figures from the energy
report; note attached to hold the arbitrage/forcing-function framing until
the value side is hardened (higher N + blinded judge).
2026-05-21 13:52:20 -04:00

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COGS tweet — cost of a grounded answer (arborist)

Draft social post. Numbers are the measured claim_lattice figures from docs/energy-cogs-benchmark.md (n=30, $0.33/kWh, real GPUs: Hermes-8B on a 3090, Qwen-27B on a 4090). Hold the bigger "arbitrage / forcing function" framing until the value side is hardened (higher N + blinded SOTA judge) — see that report's §5.5 + §9.

Main tweet

What does a grounded answer actually cost in GPU electricity? We measured it on real cards:

  • arborist + Hermes-3-8B → ~9¢ per 1,000 answers
  • arborist + Qwen-27B → ~16¢ per 1,000

No reasoning chains (those burn 46×). Read the evidence cheap, write a short answer locked to a claim lattice, stop.

Follow-up

And if an answer's already hot, it never even joins that 1,000 — it's a Merkle-bound cache hit that skips the GPU entirely. Zero joules, zero cents. You pay GPU only for new questions; the cached answers are free forever, and provably the same answer.


Source numbers (claim_lattice, $0.33/kWh):

  • Hermes-3-8B + substrate: $0.085 / 1,000 grounded answers (~9¢)
  • Qwen-27B + substrate: $0.158 / 1,000 (~16¢)
  • quote mode is cheaper (Hermes $0.070, Qwen $0.121) — less context prefilled
  • thinking/reasoning mode measured 46× the energy for the same answer
  • cache hit (Merkle-bound providence record) returns the answer with no LLM call → 0 GPU joules, does not increment the per-1k cost