Phase 0 of ticket #000037 (Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification
controller) is doc-only and gates Phase 1 on §12 measured-pressure
triggers. This commit lands the empirical-evidence harness fox needs
for the go/no-go decision, plus the §16.2 test scaffolding so the
contract is discoverable from the test runner today.
bench/prometheus_sigma_trigger_probe.py
=======================================
Read-only walk of audit_events + capital_ledger across shards.
Reports each §12 trigger:
- Trigger 1 (branch density, ≥4 branches/checkpoint): looks for a
fork_score branch-set table; reports "no data — single-validator
ForkScore Phase 1a" when absent. Trigger structurally cannot fire
until #000012 multi-branch persistence lands.
- Trigger 2 (divergence variance, N≥30 + ratio>0.5 OR abs>0.10):
aggregates providence_canonical_witness audit-event bodies,
maps each agreement_label per #000028 §1.2 to a binary
LLM-divergence score, computes mean/stddev/ratio. Defensive on
the max(mean,ε) guard from §12 itself.
- Trigger 3 (witness cost share > 0.30): aggregates capital_ledger
rows; uses `material` (kWh proxy) as the canonical compute axis;
surfaces both `material` and `financial` so fox can pick a
different form if needed. Tags the report with the caveat that
the current ledger reflects ad-hoc activity, not a controlled
#000026 sweep.
- Trigger 4 (operator mission need): n/a — operator decision.
Pure measurement, no LLM, no schema change, no mutation. Output is
a markdown report at $(PROMETHEUS_PROBE_OUT) (default
bench/results/prometheus-sigma-triggers-<utc-date>.md).
Wired via `make prometheus-trigger-probe`.
bench/results/prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10.md
=====================================================
First captured baseline. Verdict on current shards:
Trigger 1: NO (no fork_score branch-set table; #000012 Phase 1a
is single-validator)
Trigger 2: NO (16 samples; N_min=30. But mean=0.625, σ=0.5,
ratio=0.8 — both ratio AND abs floors would fire
if N reaches 30. Signal is there; just needs more
samples.)
Trigger 3: NO (witness/total material = 0.005, well under 0.30
threshold. Caveated: ledger is ad-hoc, not a
controlled #000026 sweep.)
Trigger 4: n/a (operator-stated)
Empirical answer: no §12 measured-pressure trigger has fired yet.
Phase 1 of #000037 remains paper-only unless fox invokes Trigger 4.
tests/test_prometheus_sigma.py
==============================
17 skip-stubs pinning the §16.2 acceptance contract. Each test:
- Collects today via `pytest --collect-only` so the test surface is
discoverable.
- Skips with reason "Phase 1 not landed; controller module
arborist/v9/prometheus.py absent" until that import succeeds.
- Carries a one-sentence intent line tying it back to a numbered
ticket section (§5 / §6 / §7 / §10 / §13 / §14 / §16.1 / §4.4).
When Phase 1 lands, the implementer adds the controller module
under arborist/v9/prometheus.py per §13; CONTROLLER_AVAILABLE
becomes True; each test gets its body filled in. The names, intents,
and skip-reason strings are the durable contract.
Hygiene
=======
- make test → 1623 passed, 45 skipped (was 28; +17 new skips).
- make chain-check-shards → 0 breaks across all 7 shards.
- No code touched outside the new probe + scaffolding files +
Makefile target wiring. fox's in-flight #000037 ticket
modifications left untouched.
russell@unturf.com
c422216428