arborist/bench/results/nli-shadow-sweep.json
russell@unturf.com 02f8dfec07
#000049 §7 #21: candidate-clause restriction in ShadowNLI.check — helps, doesn't close it
candidate_clauses() — NLI now runs only on the top-N source clauses by
content-token overlap with the answer claim (max_candidate_clauses=6),
not the whole context; records n_candidate_clauses / best_clause_overlap
/ recombination_risk. Synthetic sweep unchanged (28/28 recombination,
0/26 legit FP, mean 1.45 candidate clauses/record). Real-traffic smoke
re-run: STRICT would-demote 30% → 20%, overall 47% → 33% — better, not
fixed; recombination-risk split doesn't separate either. Residual STRICT
false-contras at ~0.83-0.92 → θc would need ≈ 0.90 (vs the clean-set
0.5); at θc=0.90 the data in hand gives 27/28 synthetic recall, 0/26
legit FP, 0/10 smoke STRICT FP — but n=10 is too small to set on.
Next: a fuller ARBORIST_NLI_SHADOW=1 bench-qa run → sweep θc on hundreds
of STRICT cells → confirm → set it. θc stays 0.5; runtime NLI demotion
stays off. Production verifier unchanged; falsification-hard stays 10/12.
2026-05-12 14:34:44 -04:00

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{
"generated_at": "2026-05-12T18:32:06Z",
"available": true,
"reason": "ok",
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"n_records": 116,
"n_available": 116,
"elapsed_seconds": 9.3,
"would_demote_total": 47,
"would_demote_rate": 0.4052,
"mean_candidate_clauses": 1.45,
"max_candidate_clauses_cap": 6,
"by_bucket": {
"HYBRID_ENTITY": {
"n": 2,
"would_demote": 1,
"rate": 0.5
},
"STRICT_PARAPHRASE": {
"n": 1,
"would_demote": 0,
"rate": 0.0
},
"STRICT_SPAN": {
"n": 9,
"would_demote": 0,
"rate": 0.0
},
"UNGROUNDED": {
"n": 50,
"would_demote": 18,
"rate": 0.36
},
"contradiction": {
"n": 28,
"would_demote": 28,
"rate": 1.0
},
"not_contradiction": {
"n": 26,
"would_demote": 0,
"rate": 0.0
}
},
"by_recombination_risk": {
"risk": {
"n": 52,
"would_demote": 31,
"rate": 0.5962
},
"no_risk": {
"n": 64,
"would_demote": 16,
"rate": 0.25
}
},
"false_positive_probe": {
"n": 26,
"would_demote": 0,
"rate": 0.0,
"note": "would_demote on records labeled want=not_contradiction \u2014 these are shadow FALSE POSITIVES; this is \u00a77 #12 gate item 4 when the input is a real legit-answer sample"
},
"rows": [
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-001",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0066,
"max_entailment": 0.9861,
"best_clause": "Penicillin was discovered by Alexander Fleming in 1928.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.75,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-002",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9977,
"max_entailment": 0.0004,
"best_clause": "The Eiffel Tower is in Paris, designed by Gustave Eiffel.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.6667,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-003",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9926,
"max_entailment": 0.0069,
"best_clause": "Mercury is the smallest.",
"n_clauses": 2,
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"best_clause_overlap": 0.8,
"recombination_risk": true,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-004",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9932,
"max_entailment": 0.0011,
"best_clause": "Water boils at 100 degrees Celsius at sea level.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-005",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9956,
"max_entailment": 0.0017,
"best_clause": "Charles Darwin developed evolution.",
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"n_candidate_clauses": 2,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.8,
"recombination_risk": true,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-006",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9793,
"max_entailment": 0.0091,
"best_clause": "The French Revolution began in 1789, with the storming of the Bastille.",
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-007",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0506,
"max_entailment": 0.9136,
"best_clause": "The speed of light is approximately 300,000 kilometers per second in a vacuum.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-008",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9954,
"max_entailment": 0.0007,
"best_clause": "The Titanic sank in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1912.",
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-009",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9897,
"max_entailment": 0.0118,
"best_clause": "Shakespeare wrote Hamlet.",
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-010",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
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"max_entailment": 0.0844,
"best_clause": "The mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell.",
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-011",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9966,
"max_entailment": 0.4478,
"best_clause": "The capital of Australia is Canberra;",
"n_clauses": 2,
"n_candidate_clauses": 2,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.6667,
"recombination_risk": true,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-hard-012",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-hard-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9954,
"max_entailment": 0.0038,
"best_clause": "Gold has the chemical symbol Au;",
"n_clauses": 2,
"n_candidate_clauses": 2,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-001",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0,
"max_entailment": 0.0,
"best_clause": null,
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 0.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "no_candidate_clauses"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-002",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.986,
"max_entailment": 0.0022,
"best_clause": "Mount Everest is the tallest mountain at 8849 meters.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-003",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0066,
"max_entailment": 0.9861,
"best_clause": "Penicillin was discovered by Alexander Fleming in 1928.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.75,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-004",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0014,
"max_entailment": 0.9847,
"best_clause": "Water boils at 100 degrees Celsius at sea level.",
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"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-005",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0008,
"max_entailment": 0.9919,
"best_clause": "Hydrogen has atomic number 1 and is the lightest chemical element.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-006",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9561,
"max_entailment": 0.0096,
"best_clause": "There are eight planets in the solar system since Pluto's reclassification.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 0.75,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-007",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9893,
"max_entailment": 0.0031,
"best_clause": "DNA has a double helix structure first described by Watson and Crick.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 0.6667,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-008",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0011,
"max_entailment": 0.9908,
"best_clause": "Gold has the chemical symbol Au and atomic number 79.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-009",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.9945,
"max_entailment": 0.0005,
"best_clause": "Intel released a new CPU yesterday.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-010",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.001,
"max_entailment": 0.9845,
"best_clause": "The Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean on Earth.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-011",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0009,
"max_entailment": 0.9931,
"best_clause": "Sputnik 1 was the first artificial satellite launched in 1957 by the Soviet Union.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-012",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": true,
"max_contradiction": 0.996,
"max_entailment": 0.0003,
"best_clause": "The capital of France is Paris.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 0.3333,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-013",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0014,
"max_entailment": 0.9779,
"best_clause": "Plain text matching context exactly.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-014",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0035,
"max_entailment": 0.9891,
"best_clause": "Penicillin was discovered by Alexander Fleming in 1928.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-015",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0038,
"max_entailment": 0.9671,
"best_clause": "Cuneiform is one of the earliest known writing systems originating in ancient Sumer.",
"n_clauses": 1,
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"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-016",
"bucket": "HYBRID_ENTITY",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0076,
"max_entailment": 0.9787,
"best_clause": "Mount Everest is the tallest mountain on Earth at about 8849 meters.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-017",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0039,
"max_entailment": 0.977,
"best_clause": "DNA has a double helix structure first described by Watson and Crick.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-018",
"bucket": "UNGROUNDED",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
"max_contradiction": 0.0018,
"max_entailment": 0.9887,
"best_clause": "Hydrogen has atomic number 1 and is the lightest chemical element.",
"n_clauses": 1,
"n_candidate_clauses": 1,
"best_clause_overlap": 1.0,
"recombination_risk": false,
"model_version": "nli-shadow-v1-minilm2-l6-h768",
"theta_contra": 0.5,
"theta_entail": 0.9,
"reason": "ok"
},
{
"id": "5f-fal-live-019",
"bucket": "STRICT_SPAN",
"is_fp_probe": false,
"src_file": "falsification-live-v1.jsonl",
"available": true,
"would_demote": false,
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