arborist/bench/results
russell@unturf.com c5bc53f733
bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path
Followup to dee6623 ("bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism
dormant on warrant-targeted fixture") — the initial A/B reported
Phase 3 dormant on a 7-question fixture where only 2/7 questions
retrieved any chain-root sources. Open question: was the dormancy
a fixture inadequacy or a structural property of Phase 3?

This commit answers it. Aggressive fixture (13 questions using
exact claim-pack title phrasing — "What is the Pigeonhole
Principle?", "Define the Axiom of Extensionality", etc.; titles
sampled directly from the 92-document chain-root set on shard
000.db) drives retrieval to chain-root chunks on **12/13
questions** (24 chain sources retrieved total).

A/B vs a57b194~1, n=3, 117 cells per condition:

  cache_key parity:                          39/39 cells match
  Phase 3 fire rate (warrant_proven_idxs):   0 / 117 cells
  STRICT-rate:                               85/117 → 85/117 (Δ +0)
  per-cell movement (LLM dice):              4 ↑, 4 ↓

Phase 3 fires zero times even though retrieval does land on chain
roots on 92% of questions. The structural reason now reads as:

  Phase 3 is a rescue mechanism, not a default path. It fires only
  when (a) a cited chunk has warrant-resolver chain backing AND
  (b) the lexical warrant_check would otherwise fail. On
  well-formed axiom questions, the LLM's answer contains the
  technical terminology that the lexical anchor heuristic looks
  for — so warrant_check passes via the cheap lexical path and
  Phase 3 has nothing to suppress.

Two readings of this finding:

1. **Positive for the lexical layer.** It's strong enough on
   clean axiom questions that the chain-fallback isn't needed.
   The mechanism that lands warrants on cheap lexical evidence
   continues to do most of the work.

2. **Phase 3 calibration needs a different fixture shape.** To
   exercise the rescue path empirically, a future fixture would
   need to elicit lexical-fail-but-chain-pass claims —
   paraphrase-heavy questions, disputed-terminology topics,
   questions where the LLM naturally drifts from chunk vocabulary.

Mechanism is correct + non-regressing (cache_keys identical → no
retrieval movement; 0/117 fire rate confirms defensive-only
behavior). No further changes warranted to the implementation.

C — separate finding (refactor sweep verification): a57b194 has
zero v7/v8 patterns. Final exhaustive sweep across arborist/ +
tests/ shows only the intentional historical-note comments in
arborist/cli.py (Was \`arborist v8 score\`...) and
arborist/substrate/__init__.py (explaining why v-dirs were
retired). Refactor cleanup is complete.

B — separate finding (Makefile bench-fork-score smoke):
make bench-fork-baseline + make bench-fork-score runs end-to-end
under the renamed CLI. Verdict MARGINAL (score 0.0 for self-
comparison), exit 0. Yesterday's Makefile:430 fix verified live.
2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
..
citation-aliases-batch-2026-05-10.md citation-aliases batch: 18 -> 35 / 92 records resolve (38%) 2026-05-10 06:58:27 -04:00
claim-pack-retrieval-lift-2026-05-09.md bench/results: claim-pack retrieval lift measurement (2026-05-09) 2026-05-09 13:38:04 -04:00
full-warrant-resolution-2026-05-10.md warrant resolver: cascade tuning lifts 77 -> 92/92 (100%) 2026-05-10 08:33:19 -04:00
grinstead-snell-and-cascade-tuning-2026-05-10.md Grinstead-Snell ingest + cascade tuning batch: 68 -> 77/92 (84%) 2026-05-10 08:03:11 -04:00
hilbert-pillar-iv-fully-resolved-2026-05-09.md ticket #000042: 4 geometry aliases resolve all 18 Hilbert pillar IV records 2026-05-09 20:18:58 -04:00
lambda-and-pm-additions-2026-05-10.md PLFA + SF-LF + PM Vol 1 ingest: 62 -> 68/92 (74%) — pillar IX nearly closed 2026-05-10 07:45:40 -04:00
medium-confidence-aliases-and-peano-2026-05-10.md medium-conf aliases + Peano ingest + title backfill: 35 -> 54/92 (59%) 2026-05-10 07:14:44 -04:00
phase3-live-validation-2026-05-10.md Phase 3 live validation: 6/7 probes reach EVIDENCE-WARRANTED 2026-05-10 09:46:10 -04:00
phase3-warrant-chain-A-B-2026-05-10.md bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism dormant on warrant-targeted fixture 2026-05-10 09:37:27 -04:00
phase3-warrant-chain-A-B-aggressive-2026-05-10.md bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path 2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
progressive-and-2026-05-09.md bench: progressive-AND fixture + 2026-05-09 A/B baseline report 2026-05-10 06:35:18 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10-npower.md three-thread session output: stale TODOs, N-power probe, ForkScore Phase 1c 2026-05-10 07:46:35 -04:00
prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10.md #000037 Phase 0: §12 trigger probe + Phase 1 test scaffolding 2026-05-10 07:24:59 -04:00
real-shard-baseline.json modified: .gitignore 2026-05-08 16:38:09 -04:00
real-shard-baseline.md modified: .gitignore 2026-05-08 16:38:09 -04:00
textbook-base-knowledge-upgrade-2026-05-09.md textbook ingest: 4 base-knowledge additions for pillars I/II/III/IX 2026-05-09 20:38:32 -04:00
three-more-textbooks-2026-05-10.md 3 more textbooks (Russell PoM + Laplace + Dedekind): 54 -> 62/92 (67%) 2026-05-10 07:31:40 -04:00
warrant-chain-render-2026-05-09.md bench/results: warrant-chain render tail measurement (2026-05-09) 2026-05-09 18:00:36 -04:00
witness-sweep.json fan-out: witness automation · #000018 analysis · #000033 pillar VII (Claude) 2026-05-09 14:36:39 -04:00