arborist/bench
russell@unturf.com 7b1a57ade9
#000052 §3.2.2 step 3: real-context deflection fixtures (n=20) — verdict REVERSES: bge-large catches 55% of real deflections at strictly 0% real-STRICT FP, MiniLM-L-6 catches 65% at 0.4% FP. Runtime soft-veto IS viable.
Built bench/fixtures/5f/relevance-deflection-realcontext-v1.jsonl —
20 hand-crafted deflection answers against real bench-qa questions
(each: coherent well-formed answer using context-tokens, but NOT
addressing the question — the kind of failure §3.2 was built for).

Real-context deflection scores (cleaned, MiniLM-L-6):
  min -6.71, median +1.56, max +6.34
Real-context deflection scores (cleaned, bge-reranker-large):
  min -5.57, median -3.02, max +5.01

vs STRICT (cleaned):
  MiniLM-L-6: min -5.29, p10 +6.90, median +9.32
  bge-large:  min -2.42, p10 +3.56, median +6.48

Distributions are CLEAN-separable on real data — 0% of MiniLM
deflections score above p10(STRICT); bge-large median is -3.02 vs
STRICT median +6.48.

Pareto frontier (MiniLM-L-6, cleaned):
  θ=-5.29: catch 10% / fp 0%      (fp=0 floor, low signal but safe)
  θ=+3:    catch 65% / fp 0.4%    ← strong runtime soft-veto
  θ=+5:    catch 90% / fp 1.9%    ← aggressive soft-veto
  θ=+7:    catch 100% / fp 10.4%  (too FP for runtime)

bge-reranker-large:
  θ=-2.42: catch 55% / fp 0%      ← VIABLE runtime soft-veto at strict fp=0

The step-2 'NOT VIABLE' verdict was an artifact of using the
candidate-bench NEG distribution (tight contrived band, overlapped
real STRICT) as the recall denominator. Real-context deflections sit
in a much lower band (median around -3 for bge-large) than real
STRICT, so absolute thresholds DO separate them cleanly. The
relevance reranker IS a viable runtime soft-veto on this design —
the candidate-bench-only step 2 measurement misled us.

Manifest's runtime_viability.as_runtime_demotion_veto flipped from
'NOT VIABLE' to 'VIABLE at low-to-moderate FP', with both per-model
Pareto frontiers recorded. demote_below_score stays null pending
fox+dav1d sign-off; setting it folds relevance_policy_hash into
governance_policy_hash per #000049 §7 #2 discipline.

Still SHADOW; production verifier unchanged; no audit_mode effect.
Eighth instance of the meta-lesson, with the lesson sharpening AGAIN:
clean candidate-bench can MIS-PREDICT in BOTH directions — over-
optimistic on threshold (step 2) AND over-pessimistic on viability
(step 3 reversal). Real-data fixtures are the only load-bearing
denominators on either axis.
2026-05-13 15:11:27 -04:00
..
batteries #000025 §10.11 + §10.13 + §10.14 — close the 5F battery 2026-05-11 07:41:37 -04:00
fixtures #000052 §3.2.2 step 3: real-context deflection fixtures (n=20) — verdict REVERSES: bge-large catches 55% of real deflections at strictly 0% real-STRICT FP, MiniLM-L-6 catches 65% at 0.4% FP. Runtime soft-veto IS viable. 2026-05-13 15:11:27 -04:00
results #000052 §3.2.2 refinement: claim-lattice metadata cleaning — STRICT FP drops universally (-0.5 to -5.6 pts), L-2 down to 1.5% 2026-05-13 15:01:50 -04:00
scripts #000052 §3.2.2 refinement: claim-lattice metadata cleaning — STRICT FP drops universally (-0.5 to -5.6 pts), L-2 down to 1.5% 2026-05-13 15:01:50 -04:00
emergent_log.jsonl #000006 — +30 emergent cycles (2026-05-12); verifier-ladder health re-confirmed 2026-05-12 11:28:57 -04:00
prometheus_sigma_trigger_probe.py #000012 Phase 1c follow-through: wire #000037 §12 Trigger 1 probe to fork_score_branches 2026-05-11 06:56:09 -04:00
qa_questions.txt aborist/arborist 2026-05-07 09:31:49 -04:00
qa_questions_canonical_witness_npower.txt three-thread session output: stale TODOs, N-power probe, ForkScore Phase 1c 2026-05-10 07:46:35 -04:00
qa_questions_metacog_subset.txt qa(#000011 + 4 more): SOFT_PREFLIGHT_HINT impl + 5-task fan-out 2026-05-03 23:00:56 -04:00
qa_questions_progressive_and.txt bench: progressive-AND fixture + 2026-05-09 A/B baseline report 2026-05-10 06:35:18 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_baseline.txt bench(#000008): harness extension — FC rate, violation kinds, raw brackets 2026-05-02 18:35:08 -04:00
qa_questions_quantifier_subset.txt ticket(#000008): §12 dry-run bench findings + --policy harness flag 2026-05-03 08:39:20 -04:00
qa_questions_smoke.txt speed: pytest-xdist, bench smoke, concurrency default; UTF surrogate fix 2026-05-02 09:29:40 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_aggressive.txt bench: aggressive warrant fixture confirms Phase 3 is rescue-only, not default-path 2026-05-10 09:53:21 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_paraphrase.txt bench: Phase 3 paraphrase fixture investigation — empirically dormant on current corpus 2026-05-10 10:06:23 -04:00
qa_questions_warrant_chain_probe.txt bench: #000031 Phase 3 A/B finds mechanism dormant on warrant-targeted fixture 2026-05-10 09:37:27 -04:00
qa_sweep.py bench/qa_sweep: scrub lone surrogates from the NLI-shadow answer_text/context fields before json.dumps 2026-05-12 17:04:33 -04:00
run.sh aborist/arborist 2026-05-07 09:31:49 -04:00