arborist/docs/_source/v8-fork-score.rst
russell@unturf.com aad24d3cfe
docs: clear all 39 cold-build Sphinx warnings (truly green)
A `make docs-api-clean && make docs-api` cold rebuild now succeeds
with zero WARNING/ERROR lines (was 39).

Docstring fixes (RST hygiene — no semantic change):
- arborist/qa/{keys,runner,query,verify,quantifier,metacognition,dag,
  evidence}.py — add blank lines around indented blocks, convert
  ad-hoc indented sections to literal blocks (`::`), avoid line-broken
  inline literals (e.g. UNKNOWN_EVIDENCE_ID), and replace nested
  bracket/quote literals with cleaner wording.
- arborist/concepts/__init__.py — wrap function-signature listing in
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- arborist/store.py — blank line before bullet lists in module +
  connect docstrings.
- arborist/evict.py — replace ad-hoc `{ ... }` enum block with prose.

Surface fixes:
- docs/_source/_ext/makefile_targets.py — escape `*` in auto-
  generated Makefile target descriptions (covers `*-parallel`,
  `*.dot`, `*.db`, `π*`, etc.) so the generator emits clean RST.
- docs/_source/index.rst, concepts.rst — extend title underlines
  to match title length.
- docs/_source/concepts.rst, v8-fork-score.rst — widen first column
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- docs/_source/merkle-agi-v7w-spatial-temporal.rst — switch
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  `<int32 x 3>` placeholders aren't valid JSON tokens).

Verification:
- make docs-api-clean && make docs-api → build succeeded, 0 warnings
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- make chain-check-shards → 0 breaks across all 7 shards
- import-time SyntaxWarning escalation on edited modules → clean
2026-05-09 18:00:15 -04:00

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v8 ForkScore
============
The Merkle-AGI v8 selection protocol's **scoring half**. Pure
function over a (parent, child) bench-result pair → a single
scalar with ACCEPT / MARGINAL / REJECT verdict. Phase 1a of
ticket ``#000012``.
The complementary canonicalization half (validator state machine,
acceptance protocol, slashing, fork-choice rule) is reserved for
the v8 paper itself; Phase 1a ships only the function ForkScore
without the consensus surface around it.
Formula
-------
.. code-block:: text
ForkScore =
α · Δ5S
+ β · Δ5T
+ γ · Δ5F (incl. efficiency-aware bonus)
+ δ · SelfModelCalibrationGain
+ ε · AuditCompleteness
+ ζ · ValidatorDiversity
- η · RegressionPenalty
- θ · CapitalCostPenalty
- ι · SecurityRiskPenalty (reserved; Phase 1a = 0)
- κ · ComplexityPenalty (reserved; Phase 1a = 0)
- λ · MemoryInvalidationPenalty
Each term consumes the metrics every 5S/5T/5F sub-battery emits in
its :class:`BatteryResult.metrics` dict. The Δ-rate per battery is
the mean of per-sub-battery rate deltas (child — parent).
Δ5F additionally consumes the inf-aware efficiency aggregations
landed under the 2026-05-08 ``fbd99a8`` review:
``adaptation_efficiency_mean_finite``,
``adaptation_efficiency_infinite_count``,
``adaptation_efficiency_neg_infinite_count``,
``feedback_efficiency_mean_finite``,
``feedback_efficiency_infinite_count``.
Verdict thresholds
------------------
============================ ================== ============
Score / flags Verdict CLI exit
============================ ================== ============
``score >= SIGNAL_FLOOR`` **ACCEPT** ``0``
``[0, SIGNAL_FLOOR)`` **MARGINAL** ``0``
``score < 0`` **REJECT** ``1``
hard-regression flag **REJECT** ``1``
``NEG_INF_REGRESSION`` flag **REJECT** ``1``
============================ ================== ============
``SIGNAL_FLOOR`` defaults to ``0.05`` (5pp; matches
:file:`docs/bench-maxing.md`'s noise floor).
Hard-regression flag fires if any single sub-battery rate drops by
``HARD_REGRESSION_FLOOR`` (default 5pp), regardless of net score.
``NEG_INF_REGRESSION`` flag fires when
``*_efficiency_neg_infinite_count`` increases parent → child:
*free regression* is unsafe regardless of other gains.
Default weights
---------------
.. code-block:: python
WeightSet(
alpha=1.0, # Δ5S
beta=1.0, # Δ5T
gamma=1.0, # Δ5F
delta=0.5, # SelfModelCalibrationGain
epsilon=0.3, # AuditCompleteness
zeta=0.0, # ValidatorDiversity (off in single-validator)
eta=2.0, # RegressionPenalty (heavy by design)
theta=0.5, # CapitalCostPenalty
iota=0.0, # SecurityRiskPenalty (reserved)
kappa=0.0, # ComplexityPenalty (reserved)
lambda_=0.5, # MemoryInvalidationPenalty
)
Override via JSON file passed to ``--weights``:
.. code-block:: json
{
"alpha": 1.5,
"eta": 5.0,
"lambda": 1.0
}
The JSON key ``"lambda"`` round-trips into ``WeightSet.lambda_``
because ``lambda`` is a Python reserved word.
CLI
---
.. code-block:: bash
arborist v8 score \
--parent parent-bench.json \
--child child-bench.json \
[--weights weights.json] \
[--capital-delta N] \
[--memory-invalidation-count N] \
[--audit-completeness 0..1] \
[--selfmodel-calibration-gain N] \
[--out path/to/fork_score_report.json]
``parent-bench.json`` and ``child-bench.json`` are the JSON output
of ``bench.batteries.runner --all``.
``--out`` mirrors stdout to a file; CI / mesh peers / downstream
graders ingest the artifact without parsing pipe output.
Output: :class:`arborist.v8.fork_score.ScoredFork` with
``score``, ``verdict``, per-term ``breakdown``, ``flags`` list,
and the active ``weights`` echoed back.
Make harness (Phase 1b)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.. code-block:: bash
make bench-fork-baseline # one-shot: pin current bench-suite output
# as the ForkScore parent (writes
# bench/results/baseline-suite.json)
<hack hack hack>
make bench-fork-score # rerun bench, score child vs pinned parent,
# write bench/results/fork_score_report.json.
# Exits 1 on REJECT verdict — CI-gateable.
Override defaults via env-vars: ``FORK_PARENT``, ``FORK_CHILD``,
``FORK_REPORT``.
What's NOT in Phase 1a
----------------------
- Validator state machine (bonding / signing / slashing).
- Acceptance protocol (proposal / quorum / finalization).
- Challenge protocol (audit-replay disagreement).
- Fork-choice rule (which of two competing finalizations wins).
- Mesh wire format extensions for validator gossip.
- Stake mechanics + economic incentives.
- Cross-validator ZK proof exchange.
These are commissioned by the v8 paper itself
(``docs/merkle-agi-v8-consensus.rst``, still open under #000012).
Phase 1a's scoring function is the substrate the paper consumes;
landing it now lets the paper cite measured values instead of
stipulated ones.