arborist/docs/_source/v8-fork-score.rst
russell@unturf.com 508a25076d
pi_star: time-series-quantized@v1 graduates + Substrate docs section
Two items from the menu, fanned out:

1. time-series-quantized@v1 — last meaningful π* stub graduates.
   Sample-array carrier (sensor / temporal data) joins the registry
   alongside text · claim_lattice · code · arithmetic · logic.
   Quantizes to (dt, dv) grid, sorts by timestamp, dedupes
   collisions (last wins), serializes as integer-vector text:

       dt=1;dv=0.1;n=2;t0=0:10|20

   Equivalence classes preserved: timestamp jitter < Δ_t,
   value jitter < Δ_v/2 (banker's rounding), out-of-order samples,
   different JSON presentation. Distinct: any change to dt/dv grid,
   any quantized value or timestamp difference. Projective —
   canonical text is not valid JSON, so re-canonicalization raises.

   - 13 unit tests in tests/test_pi_star.py (jitter, dedupe, sort,
     fractional dv, error paths, idempotency-projective)
   - 10 syntax + 12 semantics fixtures under bench/fixtures/5s/
     (10/10 + 12/12 pass)
   - bench-5s-time-series Makefile target
   - time_series added to PHASE_1_CARRIERS whitelist
   - tabular-pinned@v1 is now the only remaining stub

2. Substrate docs — first formal coverage of the registry, bench
   harness, and v8 ForkScore at arborist.unturf.com:

   - docs/_source/pi-star.rst: registry overview, cross-modality
     discipline (carrier + pi_star_ref), math π* highlights
     (arithmetic + logic-kernel worked examples), composition
     algebra pointer, authoring checklist (8 steps).
   - docs/_source/bench.rst: 5S/5T/5F/5R structure, sub-batteries,
     phase-1 carriers, ForkScore integration, fixture format,
     reproducibility (runtime_digest, fixture_digest).
   - docs/_source/v8-fork-score.rst: formula, default weights,
     verdict thresholds (ACCEPT/MARGINAL/REJECT), hard-regression +
     NEG_INF_REGRESSION flags, CLI usage.
   - index.rst gets a "Substrate" toctree section above the existing
     module-reference autosummary.

   Sphinx build clean (3 new pages, no new warnings).

Test suite: 1269 passed, 36 skipped.
2026-05-08 09:33:19 -04:00

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v8 ForkScore
============
The Merkle-AGI v8 selection protocol's **scoring half**. Pure
function over a (parent, child) bench-result pair → a single
scalar with ACCEPT / MARGINAL / REJECT verdict. Phase 1a of
ticket ``#000012``.
The complementary canonicalization half (validator state machine,
acceptance protocol, slashing, fork-choice rule) is reserved for
the v8 paper itself; Phase 1a ships only the function ForkScore
without the consensus surface around it.
Formula
-------
.. code-block:: text
ForkScore =
α · Δ5S
+ β · Δ5T
+ γ · Δ5F (incl. efficiency-aware bonus)
+ δ · SelfModelCalibrationGain
+ ε · AuditCompleteness
+ ζ · ValidatorDiversity
- η · RegressionPenalty
- θ · CapitalCostPenalty
- ι · SecurityRiskPenalty (reserved; Phase 1a = 0)
- κ · ComplexityPenalty (reserved; Phase 1a = 0)
- λ · MemoryInvalidationPenalty
Each term consumes the metrics every 5S/5T/5F sub-battery emits in
its :class:`BatteryResult.metrics` dict. The Δ-rate per battery is
the mean of per-sub-battery rate deltas (child — parent).
Δ5F additionally consumes the inf-aware efficiency aggregations
landed under the 2026-05-08 ``fbd99a8`` review:
``adaptation_efficiency_mean_finite``,
``adaptation_efficiency_infinite_count``,
``adaptation_efficiency_neg_infinite_count``,
``feedback_efficiency_mean_finite``,
``feedback_efficiency_infinite_count``.
Verdict thresholds
------------------
========================== ================== ============
Score / flags Verdict CLI exit
========================== ================== ============
``score >= SIGNAL_FLOOR`` **ACCEPT** ``0``
``[0, SIGNAL_FLOOR)`` **MARGINAL** ``0``
``score < 0`` **REJECT** ``1``
hard-regression flag **REJECT** ``1``
``NEG_INF_REGRESSION`` flag **REJECT** ``1``
========================== ================== ============
``SIGNAL_FLOOR`` defaults to ``0.05`` (5pp; matches
:file:`docs/bench-maxing.md`'s noise floor).
Hard-regression flag fires if any single sub-battery rate drops by
``HARD_REGRESSION_FLOOR`` (default 5pp), regardless of net score.
``NEG_INF_REGRESSION`` flag fires when
``*_efficiency_neg_infinite_count`` increases parent → child:
*free regression* is unsafe regardless of other gains.
Default weights
---------------
.. code-block:: python
WeightSet(
alpha=1.0, # Δ5S
beta=1.0, # Δ5T
gamma=1.0, # Δ5F
delta=0.5, # SelfModelCalibrationGain
epsilon=0.3, # AuditCompleteness
zeta=0.0, # ValidatorDiversity (off in single-validator)
eta=2.0, # RegressionPenalty (heavy by design)
theta=0.5, # CapitalCostPenalty
iota=0.0, # SecurityRiskPenalty (reserved)
kappa=0.0, # ComplexityPenalty (reserved)
lambda_=0.5, # MemoryInvalidationPenalty
)
Override via JSON file passed to ``--weights``:
.. code-block:: json
{
"alpha": 1.5,
"eta": 5.0,
"lambda": 1.0
}
The JSON key ``"lambda"`` round-trips into ``WeightSet.lambda_``
because ``lambda`` is a Python reserved word.
CLI
---
.. code-block:: bash
arborist v8 score \
--parent parent-bench.json \
--child child-bench.json \
[--weights weights.json] \
[--capital-delta N] \
[--memory-invalidation-count N] \
[--audit-completeness 0..1] \
[--selfmodel-calibration-gain N]
``parent-bench.json`` and ``child-bench.json`` are the JSON output
of ``bench.batteries.runner --all``.
Output: :class:`arborist.v8.fork_score.ScoredFork` with
``score``, ``verdict``, per-term ``breakdown``, ``flags`` list,
and the active ``weights`` echoed back.
What's NOT in Phase 1a
----------------------
- Validator state machine (bonding / signing / slashing).
- Acceptance protocol (proposal / quorum / finalization).
- Challenge protocol (audit-replay disagreement).
- Fork-choice rule (which of two competing finalizations wins).
- Mesh wire format extensions for validator gossip.
- Stake mechanics + economic incentives.
- Cross-validator ZK proof exchange.
These are commissioned by the v8 paper itself
(``docs/merkle-agi-v8-consensus.rst``, still open under #000012).
Phase 1a's scoring function is the substrate the paper consumes;
landing it now lets the paper cite measured values instead of
stipulated ones.