fix(#000057): code judge — short-entity-grounded fast path runs before NLI contradiction

Reorder rule 3 (short-answer entity grounding) above rule 4 (NLI
contradiction) so positive lexical evidence cannot be overridden by
NLI clause-level noise. Surfaced by the 2026-05-19 arborist+qwen-
nothink smoke:

  i=3 · who is the prime minister of Poland?
  ans: 'Donald Tusk is listed as the Prime Minister of Poland.'
  gold: ...lists Tusk + Marcinkiewicz + Belka + Kaczynski + Kopacz...
  NLI contradiction p=0.892  (above 0.85 threshold)
  NLI entailment   p=0.744   (also high on the correct clause)

Tusk WAS PM in 2010 (served 2007-2014); answer is correct against
the corpus-vintage gold. The NLI contradiction signal came from
clause-level candidate selection picking a NON-Tusk PM the source
also mentions; entailment was high on the Tusk clause. Mixed signal
that the WRONG rule then over-confidently resolved.

The fix is a rule reorder, not a threshold change — the fast path's
positive-evidence combination (specifics-in-gold AND subject-in-gold)
is a strictly stronger signal than NLI's clause-level max
contradiction, so when it fires it should win. The combination
discriminates Poland-Tusk (Tusk ∈ gold, Poland ∈ gold → CG) from
Anthony-Albanese (Albanese ∉ gold → fast path declines → falls
through to UNGROUNDED-subject-in-gold → WRONG, unchanged).

Self-test 4/4 INSTRUMENT TRUSTWORTHY unchanged. pytest 27/27.
Poland-Tusk regression smoke: now CG via short_entity_grounded ✓.

No regression risk on the existing reconciliation cells:
- Iceland CG: short_entity_grounded was already winning (was rule
  4, now rule 3 — same outcome, earlier exit)
- WWII-1812 WRONG: '1812' ∉ gold → fast path declines, NLI fires ✓
- Higgs-cafe FABRICATED: 'Higgs' ∉ gold → fast path declines ✓
- Anthony Albanese WRONG: 'Albanese' ∉ gold → fast path declines ✓
- Abstention phrases: rule 2 still fires first ✓

bench/judge_code.py

@@ -565,28 +565,24 @@ def judge(question: str, answer: str, gold_source: str) -> Verdict:
     trace["subject_anchor"] = subj_anchor
     trace["subject_in_gold"] = subj_in_gold
 
-    # Rule 3 — strong NLI contradiction (gold-contradicts-claim).
-    # The 0.85 threshold is the code-judge floor for "this is a real
-    # contradiction, not NLI noise on wikitext-shaped gold" — see the
-    # _CODE_JUDGE_THETA_CONTRA constant for the measurement that drove
-    # the recalibration from the manifest's 0.5.
-    theta_contra = _CODE_JUDGE_THETA_CONTRA
-    trace["theta_contra_code_judge"] = theta_contra
-    if nli_avail and nli.max_contradiction >= theta_contra:
-        trace["rules_fired"].append("nli_contradiction")
-        return _v("WRONG",
-                  f"NLI contradiction p={nli.max_contradiction:.3f} "
-                  f">= theta_contra={theta_contra:.2f}",
-                  trace)
-
-    # Rule 4 — short-answer entity-grounding fast path. Verifier's
-    # strategy-2 needs prose shape; terse-name answers fall through
-    # to UNGROUNDED with no specifics → ABSTAINED, missing valid CG.
-    # Rescue when: (a) answer is short, (b) every specific asserted
-    # is present in gold (no unsourced specifics), (c) at least one
-    # specific WAS asserted (not just "ok" or other empty content),
-    # (d) the question's subject anchor is in gold (guards against
-    # "wrong topic, right name" false positives).
+    # Rule 3 — short-answer entity-grounding fast path. RUNS BEFORE
+    # NLI contradiction (since 2026-05-19 Poland-Tusk smoke): when the
+    # answer asserts only specifics that are ALL in gold AND the
+    # question's subject anchor is in gold, that is strong positive
+    # evidence — NLI clause-level noise cannot override it. The
+    # Poland case (qwen+arborist answer "Donald Tusk is listed as the
+    # Prime Minister of Poland.", gold lists multiple PMs across
+    # decades) measured NLI contradiction p=0.89 ABOVE the 0.85
+    # threshold while NLI entailment was also 0.74 on the correct
+    # clause — mixed signal. The fast path's positive-evidence
+    # combination (specifics-in-gold + subject-in-gold) discriminates
+    # truth from contradiction without depending on NLI's clause-
+    # level aggregation. Rescue when: (a) answer is short, (b) every
+    # specific asserted is present in gold (no unsourced specifics),
+    # (c) at least one specific WAS asserted, (d) the question's
+    # subject anchor is in gold (guards against "wrong topic, right
+    # name" false positives — e.g. "Anthony Albanese" wouldn't fire
+    # because Albanese ∉ gold).
     short = _is_short_answer(a)
     trace["short_answer"] = short
     if short and subj_in_gold:
@@ -603,6 +599,22 @@ def judge(question: str, answer: str, gold_source: str) -> Verdict:
                       f"subject anchor {subj_anchor!r} in gold",
                       trace)
 
+    # Rule 4 — strong NLI contradiction (gold-contradicts-claim).
+    # Runs AFTER the entity-grounding fast path so positive lexical
+    # evidence can't be overridden by NLI noise. The 0.85 threshold is
+    # the code-judge floor for "this is a real contradiction, not NLI
+    # noise on wikitext-shaped gold" — see the _CODE_JUDGE_THETA_CONTRA
+    # constant for the measurement that drove the recalibration from
+    # the manifest's 0.5.
+    theta_contra = _CODE_JUDGE_THETA_CONTRA
+    trace["theta_contra_code_judge"] = theta_contra
+    if nli_avail and nli.max_contradiction >= theta_contra:
+        trace["rules_fired"].append("nli_contradiction")
+        return _v("WRONG",
+                  f"NLI contradiction p={nli.max_contradiction:.3f} "
+                  f">= theta_contra={theta_contra:.2f}",
+                  trace)
+
     # Rule 5 — lexical verifier against gold.
     v = verify_quotes(a, g)
     mode = v.get("audit_mode", "UNGROUNDED")