#000037 §22: dry-run swap to sweep_weights() + §15.4 added

The dry-run was still using safe_weights(); Phase 1.c shipped
sweep_weights() (γ_5f=1.5, λ_capital_cost=0.25,
ν_witness_divergence=0.5) precisely for sleep-sweep economics. Swap
both call sites in prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py and label the
report Weight profile: sweep (§15.4).

§15.4 adds the sweep profile alongside §15.1 safe / §15.2
conservative / §15.3 exploratory so the named-profile registry has
a single doc source of truth and the dry-run report's §15.4
reference resolves.

§22 dry-run-runs table (3 rows: initial uniform-τ-1d under safe;
per-mode τ under safe; per-mode τ under sweep) replaces the prior
inline narrative count. Includes a Phase-3-design observation: the
sweep profile flattens the softmax (DEFERRED 271 → 369; REJECT
205 → 110; ACCEPT 1 → 0; MARGINAL 2 → 3) because reducing
λ_capital_cost + ν_witness_divergence shrinks the gap between
high-Δ5F and low-Δ5F branches, so fewer branches reach Kelly's
p_i > 0.5 floor. Falsification-fixture proposal count stayed flat
(447 → 449) — the §13 step 11 emission path is upstream of decision
labeling, so sweep mode preserves information-gathering value while
concentrating action-taking on the high-confidence tail. Phase 3
ticket #000045 §2 deliberately leaves softmax temperature un-pinned
because of this trade-off.

bench/results/prometheus-sigma-sweep-dryrun-2026-05-10.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Prometheus-Σ Phase 3 sleep-sweep dry-run
 
-Generated: 2026-05-10T22:33:37Z UTC
+Generated: 2026-05-10T23:20:32Z UTC
 Script:    `bench/scripts/prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py`
 Ticket:    #000037 Phase 3 (read-only simulation)
 
@@ -14,31 +14,30 @@ Ticket:    #000037 Phase 3 (read-only simulation)
   - UNGROUNDED: 7d (604800s)
 - Target B sample/shard: 500
 - Controller budget (Hermes concurrency): 4
-- Weight profile: safe (§15.1)
+- Weight profile: sweep (§15.4)
 
 ## Target A — providence_cache sweep candidates
 
-- Total candidates (rows older than τ_qa): **1913**
-- Sweep chunks (size 4): 479
-- Controller runtime: 15.80 ms
+- Total candidates (rows older than τ_qa): **1927**
+- Sweep chunks (size 4): 482
+- Controller runtime: 12.91 ms
 
 ### Audit-mode distribution of candidates
 
 | audit_mode | count |
 |---|---|
-| STRICT | 720 |
-| HYBRID | 713 |
-| UNGROUNDED | 471 |
+| STRICT | 724 |
+| HYBRID | 720 |
+| UNGROUNDED | 474 |
 | CANONICAL_PROJECTION | 9 |
 
 ### Controller decision distribution (per chunk)
 
 | label | chunks |
 |---|---|
-| DEFERRED | 271 |
-| REJECT | 205 |
-| MARGINAL | 2 |
-| ACCEPT | 1 |
+| DEFERRED | 369 |
+| REJECT | 110 |
+| MARGINAL | 3 |
 
 ### Veto kinds observed
 
@@ -50,14 +49,14 @@ Ticket:    #000037 Phase 3 (read-only simulation)
 
 - MemoryRoot proposals: 0
 - SelfModel proposals: 0
-- FalsificationFixture proposals (§13 Step 11 — high-divergence → 5F-fixture funnel): **447**
-- Advisory event entries (would write to `controller_events` under Phase 2): 895
+- FalsificationFixture proposals (§13 Step 11 — high-divergence → 5F-fixture funnel): **449**
+- Advisory event entries (would write to `controller_events` under Phase 2): 708
 
 ## Target B — document sweep sample
 
 - Total sampled candidates: **2000**
 - Sweep chunks (size 4): 500
-- Controller runtime: 21.82 ms
+- Controller runtime: 18.33 ms
 
 ### Canonical-shape regex prefilter hits
 
@@ -91,9 +90,9 @@ Ticket:    #000037 Phase 3 (read-only simulation)
 
 ## Total simulation cost
 
-- Total branches scored: 3913
-- Total controller runtime: 37.62 ms
-- Mean per-branch latency: 9.61 µs
+- Total branches scored: 3927
+- Total controller runtime: 31.24 ms
+- Mean per-branch latency: 7.96 µs
 
 ## Findings & fixes (dry-run iteration log)
 

bench/scripts/prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ from arborist.substrate.prometheus import (
     ControllerDecision,
     ControllerInput,
     controller_decide,
-    safe_weights,
+    sweep_weights,
 )
 
 
@@ -337,7 +337,7 @@ def sweep_target_a(
     thinly that Kelly's `p_i > 0.5` floor is never met (a finding from
     dryrun iteration 1: chunk_size=64 → 100% DEFERRED).
     """
-    weights = safe_weights()
+    weights = sweep_weights()
 
     label_counts: Counter[str] = Counter()
     audit_mode_seen: Counter[str] = Counter()
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@ def sweep_target_b(shards_dir: Path, sample_per_shard: int, chunk_size: int = 4)
     chunk_size matches Hermes concurrency budget §11 — see
     :func:`sweep_target_a` rationale.
     """
-    weights = safe_weights()
+    weights = sweep_weights()
 
     label_counts: Counter[str] = Counter()
     shape_counts: Counter[str] = Counter()
@@ -570,7 +570,7 @@ def render_markdown(a_results: dict, b_results: dict, opts: dict) -> str:
     lines.append(f"- Target B sample/shard: {opts['sample_b']}")
     lines.append(f"- Controller budget (Hermes concurrency): "
                  f"{DEFAULT_BUDGET}")
-    lines.append(f"- Weight profile: safe (§15.1)")
+    lines.append(f"- Weight profile: sweep (§15.4)")
     lines.append("")
     lines.append("## Target A — providence_cache sweep candidates")
     lines.append("")

docs/tickets/ticket-000037-prometheus-sigma-recursive-falsification-controller.md

@@ -918,6 +918,29 @@ Higher temperature widens the distribution; lower divergence
 penalty admits speculative branches; lower cost penalty allows
 more compute spend on exploration.
 
+### 15.4 Sweep profile (sleep-sweep economics — landed Phase 1.c)
+
+```json
+{
+  "gamma_5f":                       1.5,
+  "lambda_capital_cost":            0.25,
+  "nu_witness_divergence":          0.5
+}
+```
+
+Tuned for the §22 dry-run economics. Sweep work *deliberately*
+accepts capital cost in exchange for falsification discovery, so
+λ_capital_cost drops to 0.25 (vs safe 1.0) and γ_5f bumps to 1.5
+(vs safe 1.25) to reward falsification-rate improvement. Witness
+divergence weight drops to 0.5 (vs safe 1.5) because high
+divergence is *desirable* signal during sweep — it's what surfaces
+fixture candidates (§13 step 11). Available as
+``arborist.substrate.prometheus.sweep_weights()`` and registered
+in ``WEIGHT_PROFILES["sweep"]``. The dry-run simulator
+(``bench/scripts/prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py``) uses this
+profile so the §22 numbers match what Phase 3 will see in
+production.
+
 ---
 
 ## 16. Phase 1 implementation prerequisites
@@ -1276,11 +1299,9 @@ mode `CASE` in `iter_target_a_candidates`: kernel-only modes (CP)
 default to τ_qa=1d (cheap re-probe, high value when kernel-LLM
 divergence surfaces); LLM-witness modes (STRICT/HYBRID/UNGROUNDED)
 stay at τ_qa=7d. Tunable via `--tau-qa-cp-days` + `--tau-qa-days`
-CLI flags + `PROMETHEUS_SWEEP_TAU_*` make-variables. Result with
-defaults: 9 CP rows surface alongside the 1,904 LLM-witness
-candidates → 1,913 total Target A candidates → 1 ACCEPT, 2 MARGINAL,
-205 REJECT, 271 DEFERRED chunks (chunk_size=4). Phase 3 lifts the
-per-mode τ table into governance parameters (cache-key hash inputs).
+CLI flags + `PROMETHEUS_SWEEP_TAU_*` make-variables. Phase 3 lifts
+the per-mode τ table into governance parameters (cache-key hash
+inputs).
 
 **Finding 4 — Target B canonical-shape detection is the real
 headline.** 4.40% of sampled documents (n=2000) contain
@@ -1301,21 +1322,40 @@ burst design.
 path exercises end-to-end against real corpus data — no fixture-only
 mocking.
 
-Total dry-run cost (per-mode τ_qa, defaults CP=1d / LLM=7d, run
-2026-05-10T22:33Z): **~37.6 ms** to score 3,913 branches across all
-sweep targets and both shards' worth of providence_cache + a 2,000-
-doc sample of documents — **9.6 µs per branch** at chunk_size=4 in
-pure Python. (Prior run with uniform τ_qa=1d: ~55 ms / 4,379 branches
-/ 12.5 µs per branch — fewer LLM-witness candidates surface under
-the per-mode default, so the total branch count drops; the
-per-branch latency delta is within measurement noise and not
-attributable to a specific code change.) Phase 3 latency budget for
-the controller itself remains non-binding; the witness fan-out
-(Hermes calls) is the dominant cost.
+**Dry-run runs over the §22 iterations (chunk_size=4, pure Python):**
+
+| run (UTC) | weights | τ_qa policy | branches | runtime | µs/branch | ACCEPT | MARGINAL | REJECT | DEFERRED |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-05-10 (initial) | safe (§15.1) | uniform 1d | 4,379 | ~55 ms | 12.5 | n/a | 4 | n/a | n/a |
+| 2026-05-10T22:33Z | safe (§15.1) | per-mode CP=1d / LLM=7d | 3,913 | 37.6 ms | 9.6 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 271 |
+| 2026-05-10T23:20Z | sweep (§15.4) | per-mode CP=1d / LLM=7d | 3,927 | 31.2 ms | 7.9 | 0 | 3 | 110 | 369 |
+
+Note on the sweep-vs-safe shift: dropping λ_capital_cost (1.0 →
+0.25) and ν_witness_divergence (1.5 → 0.5) reduced cost-class
+separation in the softmax, pulling chunks that previously hit
+REJECT (negative selected_u) into DEFERRED (positive U but no
+single branch with p_i > 0.5). The single ACCEPT chunk under safe
+weights diffused into the DEFERRED pool. Net falsification-fixture
+proposal count stayed flat (447 → 449) — the §13 step 11 emission
+path is upstream of decision labeling, so the sweep's information-
+gathering value preserves while the action-taking value
+concentrates more aggressively on the high-confidence tail.
+
+**Phase 3 implementation note (sweep-profile finding).** The
+flatter softmax under sweep weights surfaces a Phase-3-design
+question: pair `sweep_weights()` with a sharper `eta_softmax_temperature`
+(currently default 1.0) so high-Δ5F branches reach the Kelly
+floor more often, OR keep the current temperature and accept that
+sweep-mode Phase 3 will write more advisory rows than it acts on
+(DEFERRED is still informative — it's the chunks worth re-checking
+next window, not chunks rejected). Phase 3 ticket #000045 §2 leaves
+the temperature un-pinned for this reason.
 
 Detailed numbers + iteration log per shard:
 `bench/results/prometheus-sigma-sweep-dryrun-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
-(regenerated by `make prometheus-sweep-dryrun`).
+(regenerated by `make prometheus-sweep-dryrun`). Phase 3 latency
+budget for the controller itself remains non-binding; the witness
+fan-out (Hermes calls) is the dominant cost.
 
 ---