#000037 Phase 3 dry-run + Phases 0/1/2 status flip

Phases 1 (controller) and 2 (sibling-table audit writes) landed in
prior commits. This commit adds the Phase 3 dry-run simulator
instead of the actual sleep-sweep scheduler, since Phase 3's value
is mostly in what we'd learn from running it — and the dry-run
captures those findings without committing to a scheduler design
prematurely.

bench/scripts/prometheus_sigma_sweep_dryrun.py — read-only
simulator that classifies §3 Target A (providence_cache) + Target B
(documents) sweep candidates, synthesizes ControllerBranches from
real shard data, runs the Phase 1 controller, reports decision
distribution + Phase-3-design findings. No LLM calls, no
mutations.

make prometheus-sweep-dryrun — produces a dated markdown report
at bench/results/prometheus-sigma-sweep-dryrun-YYYY-MM-DD.md.

Five findings surfaced by three dry-run iterations against the
live ~/.arborist/shards corpus (3.5M docs + 2839 providence_cache
rows) — captured in ticket §22:

  1. chunk-size dominates Kelly threshold (must = Hermes
     concurrency, not candidate pool)
  2. flat capital_cost blocks every allocation (split kernel-cost
     vs LLM-cost on the contract)
  3. τ_qa=7d filters every CANONICAL_PROJECTION row (all 29 are
     <7d old; need per-audit-mode τ)
  4. Target B canonical-shape detection is the real headline
     (~152K candidates extrapolated; controller correctly returns
     MARGINAL on shape-match chunks)
  5. quarantined rows correctly veto via cache_drift hard-veto

Mean per-branch controller latency in dry-run: 12.5 µs at
chunk_size=4. Phase 3's actual bottleneck is the witness fan-out
(Hermes calls), not the controller itself.

Ticket #000037 status flipped to in-progress with Phases 0+1+2
landed; Phase 3 scheduler remains future work but is informed by
the five findings.

docs/TICKETS.md

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Newest first. Update on every open/close.
 | #000040  | Phase 5 resolver fix — phrase + content-token cascade (Hilbert terminology mismatch surfaced) | closed · cascade landed 2026-05-09; lift blocked by 1902-vs-modern vocab; follow-up #000042 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000039  | Optional `sqlite-vec` retrieval backend (A/B vs FTS5, hybrid not replacement) | open · awaiting go/no-go (doc-only Phase 0) | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000038  | Phase 4 content acquisition — proprietary textbook license decisions for warrant coverage | closed · obviated 2026-05-10 by alias-substitution sprint under #000031 (74 rows in #000041 + 13 rows in #000042); 92/92 records now resolve. Residue (multilingual PD, Hilbert-Ackermann OCR, Knuth permission, personal-copy path B) preserved as design log §8 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
-| #000037  | Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification controller (bicameral substrate) | open · awaiting go/no-go (doc-only Phase 0) | 2026-05-09 | —         |
+| #000037  | Prometheus-Σ recursive falsification controller (bicameral substrate) | in progress · Phase 0 (doc) + Phase 1 (controller `arborist/substrate/prometheus.py`) + Phase 2 (`controller_events` sibling table + advisory writes) all landed 2026-05-10; Phase 3 sleep-sweep scheduler NOT landed — instead a read-only dry-run simulator + 5 design findings in §22 | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000036  | T3 per-window covert-channel budget bound      | in progress · Phase 1 (formal derivation + calculator) landed 2026-05-10; awaits fox math review | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000035  | PRG choice for φ_PRG (HMAC-SHA-512 expansion)  | in progress · Phase 1 landed 2026-05-10; v7 §9.10 amendment awaits maintainer review | 2026-05-09 | —         |
 | #000034  | Hessian alignment under φ_linear               | in progress · Phase 1a landed 2026-05-10 (synthetic-ablation probe + KAT fixture); Phase 1b parks for v7 ramp-up | 2026-05-09 | —         |