# Prometheus-Σ §12 trigger probe — N-POWER FOLLOW-UP

**Date:** 2026-05-10T11:42:39Z
**Shards directory:** `/home/fox/.arborist/shards`
**Shards walked:** 7 (000.db, 001.db, 002.db, 003.db, crawl_appliedcombinatorics_org.db, qa.db, snapshots.db)

> **Caveat — read before relying on this report.** This run is an
> **N-power experiment**, not a measure of real workload pressure.
> The first probe run (`prometheus-sigma-triggers-2026-05-10.md`)
> measured the natural state at N=16 and reported "trigger 2 doesn't
> fire — N below the 30-sample floor". To validate that the variance
> signal would *hold* at N≥30, the operator drove the canonical-witness
> path 20 additional times via the
> `bench/qa_questions_canonical_witness_npower.txt` fixture. This
> brought N from 17 to 37 — enough to clear the floor — but the
> 20 inputs are synthetic fixture questions, not operator workload.
>
> **Read this report as: the variance signal IS statistically
> meaningful at N=30+ — not as: real workload pressure has reached
> the §12 trigger threshold.** The §12 phase-1 go/no-go decision
> should still be measured against natural workload N (or invoked
> via Trigger 4, operator-stated need).

Phase 1 of ticket #000037 gates on one §12 trigger firing. This probe walks `audit_events` + `capital_ledger` and reports the empirical state of triggers 1–3. Trigger 4 is operator-stated.

## Verdict

| # | Trigger | Fires? | Reason |
|---|---------|--------|--------|
| 1 | branch density (≥4 branches/checkpoint) | no | no fork_score branch-set table found across shards; ForkScore Phase 1a is single-validator. Multi-branch fork-score persistence is the prerequisite — see #000012. |
| 2 | divergence variance | **YES** | ratio 0.575 > 0.5; abs σ 0.435 > 0.1 |
| 3 | witness cost share (material > 0.30) | no | witness material / total material = 0.008158 / 0.540638 = 0.015 |
| 4 | operator mission need | n/a | operator decision; not measurable from committed state |

**Phase 1 trigger has fired.** Prometheus-Σ Phase 1 may proceed.

## Trigger 1 — branch density

- Data available: False
- no fork_score branch-set table found across shards; ForkScore Phase 1a is single-validator. Multi-branch fork-score persistence is the prerequisite — see #000012.

## Trigger 2 — divergence variance

- Sample count (N): 37 (N_min = 30)
- Mean divergence rate: 0.7568
- Stddev: 0.435
- Ratio (σ/mean): 0.5748
- Threshold ratio: > 0.5 OR absolute σ > 0.1
- ratio 0.575 > 0.5; abs σ 0.435 > 0.1

Agreement-label distribution across all shards:

| label | count |
|-------|-------|
| `KERNEL-LLM-DIVERGED` | 22 |
| `KERNEL-LLM-AGREE` | 6 |
| `LLM-DIVERGED` | 6 |
| `STRICT-WITNESSED` | 3 |

## Trigger 3 — witness cost share

- Witness material (kWh proxy): 0.008158
- Total material: 0.540638
- Ratio: 0.0151 (threshold > 0.3)
- Witness financial: 5e-06
- Total financial: 5e-06
- Witness rows: 37
- Total ledger rows: 39
- witness material / total material = 0.008158 / 0.540638 = 0.015

**Caveat:** ledger reflects ad-hoc activity, not a controlled #000026 sweep — ratio is informational. Re-run after a #000026 baseline sweep for a workload-anchored answer.

## Trigger 4 — operator mission need

- Operator-stated; not measurable from committed state.
- Bypasses §12 measured-pressure gates per ticket §12.
